New research reveals higher Gaza war death toll
Palestinians sit by the bodies of the Dhair family, killed in the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip, during their funeral in Rafah on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Hatem Ali)
A study published in The Lancet estimates the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was about 40% higher than figures reported by Gaza’s health ministry.
The peer-reviewed research suggests approximately 64,260 people died from traumatic injuries by June 30, 2024, surpassing the ministry’s reported 37,877 deaths.
Key findings include:
• Women, children, and the elderly comprised 59% of the fatalities.
• Deaths from traumatic injuries accounted for 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population—roughly one in 35 residents.
• The study excluded deaths from secondary causes like lack of healthcare, food shortages, and unrecorded missing persons presumed buried under rubble.
The research employed a “capture-recapture” statistical method using three data sources: hospital records, an online survey of relatives, and verified social media obituaries. This method cross-referenced overlapping reports to derive the total estimate.
While researchers acknowledge potential overestimation due to non-traumatic deaths recorded in hospital lists, the study also highlighted underestimation risks by excluding missing persons and indirect deaths.
The United Nations has deemed Gaza health ministry figures reliable, but Israel has questioned their accuracy.
Meanwhile, another non-peer-reviewed letter in The Lancet suggested indirect war deaths could raise the toll to 186,000, though this projection was critiqued for using comparisons from unrelated conflicts.
Lead researcher Zeina Jamaluddine emphasized that while debates over exact death tolls are inevitable, the focus should remain on addressing the high mortality rate and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
