Israel’s Rafah deadline raises stakes as Ramadan approaches

The announcement from Israel threatening a ground operation in Rafah, Gaza, by March 10th unless all hostages are released has intensified the already tense negotiations for a comprehensive agreement.

Arab leaders, mindful of the approaching Islamic holy month of Ramadan, emphasize the potential dangers of escalating tensions during this period. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani highlighted the critical juncture during the Munich Security Conference, echoing concerns expressed by other Arab officials.

The primary concern revolves around the volatile situation in the occupied West Bank, which could escalate into widespread violence, according to Jordan’s Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ayman Safadi. High-stakes negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, remain mired in difficulties, with sources indicating significant gaps and a stagnant process.

Key obstacles in the negotiations include Hamas’s demands for the release of Palestinian prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli troops, which Israel finds unacceptable. Efforts to bridge the divide involve introducing incentives such as increased humanitarian aid deliveries. However, Israel has raised additional issues, including allegations that Hamas failed to fulfill previous agreements.

Hamas’s proposed plan, put forward in February, includes a ceasefire and phased hostage releases over 135 days, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed it as unrealistic. Despite challenges, negotiators emphasize the importance of dialogue and express determination to reach a resolution.

The looming threat of a humanitarian crisis in Rafah has prompted international concern, with Egypt bolstering defenses along its border amid speculation of a potential influx of displaced Palestinians. Urgent appeals have been made to Israel to avoid actions that could exacerbate the situation, emphasizing the need for a humanitarian pause and a lasting ceasefire.

The United States and its allies are actively engaged in efforts to broker a deal, recognizing the significance of addressing the immediate crisis and laying the groundwork for broader regional stability. As the deadline approaches and tensions escalate, there is a growing sense of urgency to find a viable solution to the escalating crisis.