Fossil fuel plans by producing nations threatens 1.5C limit: UN

The United Nations has issued a stark warning about the expansion of oil, gas, and coal production by major fossil fuel-producing nations, highlighting the imminent threat to the 1.5C global warming limit established in the Paris Agreement.

This alarming revelation sets the stage for a critical discussion at the upcoming COP28 climate conference, where world leaders will convene to address the pressing issue of fossil fuels.

Despite the commitments made by many of the world’s leading fossil fuel-producing countries to achieve “net-zero” emissions by the middle of this century, the annual United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Production Gap report paints a sobering picture. It reveals that the production plans of these countries, including heavyweights such as the United States, China, Russia, Australia, and the host nation of COP28, the United Arab Emirates, are heading in a direction that exacerbates the global warming crisis.

In a comprehensive assessment, the UNEP report identifies a startling trend – these governments’ production plans would result in a staggering 110 percent increase in fossil fuel production by 2030 compared to what is needed to align with the 1.5C warming limit. Furthermore, this trajectory would lead to a 69 percent increase compared to what is consistent with limiting warming to 2C.

“Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, expresses deep concern, stating, ‘Governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity’s future into question,'” said the report.

The report underscores that burning fossil fuels remains the primary cause of climate change, responsible for the majority of carbon emissions that drive global warming, resulting in extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and sea-level rise. Surprisingly, despite the undeniable role of fossil fuels in climate change, many countries have been reluctant to address this issue in global climate negotiations, and even the Paris Agreement itself does not explicitly outline how to reach the set targets.

This “large discrepancy” between governments’ production plans and the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels to meet global climate objectives is a significant cause for concern, according to Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the UNEP report and a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute.

The UNEP report casts its spotlight on the 20 countries that collectively account for 82 percent of fossil fuel production and 73 percent of consumption worldwide. It highlights the dire consequences of planned production increases in these nations, showing that they would generate 460 percent more coal, 82 percent more gas, and 29 percent more oil than would be in line with the 1.5C limit.

Of note, the report singles out the United States, the global leader in oil and gas production, which has continued to promote domestic production even as it intensified climate policies. The United States anticipates oil production to maintain “record high levels” from 2024 to 2050, with gas production on a continuous upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest emitter, is responsible for over half of the world’s coal production, the most carbon-intensive of all fossil fuels. Despite its commitment to peak emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China’s domestic coal production reached record levels in 2022, with further expansion anticipated in the coming years.

The report raises questions about the apparent “hypocrisy” in global climate action. Two years ago at the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, countries collectively agreed to “phase-down unabated coal power,” marking the first time a specific fossil fuel was mentioned in an international agreement. However, since that agreement, both the production and use of fossil fuels have reached record highs.

The upcoming COP28 conference, scheduled to take place in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates from November 30 to December 12, is expected to grapple with the dominance of fossil fuels and the emissions they generate.

Sultan Al Jaber, the incoming COP28 president and head of the state-owned oil company ADNOC, has acknowledged that phasing down all fossil fuels is “inevitable and essential.” However, the UNEP report reveals a lack of concrete policies to support a “managed wind-down” of the UAE’s own fossil fuel production, with ADNOC planning to boost oil production capacity as part of a substantial $150 billion investment plan.

This report’s findings have sparked criticism from climate activists, including Harjeet Singh, the head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network International, who called for wealthy nations to set an example and lead by addressing their own contributions to climate change.

As the world grapples with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, some countries have seized the opportunity to double down on fossil fuels, but the report emphasizes the need for a more sustainable solution that prioritizes the transition to clean energy. Ploy Achakulwisut states, “What our society needs is energy, it’s not fossil fuels.” This report serves as a wake-up call for nations to reevaluate their fossil fuel production plans and make meaningful strides towards a sustainable and greener future.